Avian Influenza. Opportunities to improve the active surveillance system based on risk in Cuba

Abstract

Continuously improving surveillance and control of avian influenza (AI) is a global priority given the continued presence of this threat at a global scale. The objective of this work was to identify opportunities to improve the active AI surveillance system established in Cuba. It was mapped with a resolution of 1 km² using the multi-criteria geospatial analysis. Additionally, it was taken into account the existence of contiguity zones among poultry farms (< 3 km), where the diffusion of the causal agent could be favored in case of introduction. As a result, areas with a very high risk of occurrence were identified, either by exposure or diffusion, which was sometimes favored by the contiguity among commercial poultry farms. Based on these findings, it was possible to define the pre-existing criteria for targeting AI active surveillance, which could improve the detection capacity of eventual positive cases. Accuracy and management of the risk of spread is of great importance because it is often the main determinant of the magnitude of the epidemic. It is concluded that there are strategic areas of marked importance, towards which the main resources should be directed as a priority to strengthen both biosecurity and surveillance aimed at rapid alert.