Stochastic simulation of the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Cuba
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Abstract
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a major global animal health problem with public health implications. The aim of this study was to estimate the magnitude of the consequences of HPAI virus incursion in Cuba and the effectiveness of the main control measures. A spatial stochastic model was used to represent biological, environmental and human interaction processes involved in transmission. NAADSM (v.3.3.2) tool was used for parameterization and simulation of the outbreak, and R (v. 3.5) tool for statistical analysis of outbreaks. Four hundred sixty-seven poultry farms in 216 scenarios were processed by evaluating 20 parameters associated with probability functions or linear models to represent the epidemic process of Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) model in the population studied. Simulation showed depopulation was able to stop the outbreak in all scenarios; however, the greatest animal losses were evident in scenarios with poor biosecurity, slow detection speed and reduced movement restriction. Adjacent farms within a 5 km radius had a significantly higher risk of spreading the virus to a greater extent. The model suggests that it is possible to contain the spread of HPAI virus if detection is reached within three days post-infection, and depopulation is completed within six days.
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