Modeling Spodoptera frugiperda larvae J. E. (Smith) density in corn (Zea mays L.) in Mayabeque Province, Cuba

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Josefina V. Gómez Piñar
Yaisys Blanco Valdés
Avline Duvelsaint
Neisy Castillo Reyes
Ileana Miranda Cabrera

Abstract

With the objective of estimating the density of Spodoptera frugiperda J. E. (Smith) larvae in an experimental corn (Zea mays L.) area, a mathematical model that described the population-climate relationship was implemented. To develop the model, the data were taken from samplings carried out from day 28 after the crop emergence to harvest in an experimental area of ​​0.1 ha of the commercial corn cultivar “Francisco” from INIFAT. The interior of the buds on 80 randomly selected plants was examined by traveling across the field in a zigzag pattern.   In each sampling, the f plants with S. frugiperda larvae were counted and the density found recorded. The curves of infestation percentage and average density of larvae were described. It was developed a linear regression model that estimated larval density based on days after emergence, average temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, wind speed, and accumulated precipitation. It was estimated that in the town of Mayabeque, Cuba, in2030, the average temperature will remain between 22 and 25 °C in the months of February, March and April, but rainfall will show a considerable decrease, which will influence the increase in insect populations. A validation of the proposed model in other locations, for this and other cultivars, will provide a tool for predicting the larval density of S. frugiperda in future climate scenarios.

Article Details

How to Cite
1.
Gómez Piñar JV, Blanco Valdés Y, Duvelsaint A, Castillo Reyes N, Miranda Cabrera I. Modeling Spodoptera frugiperda larvae J. E. (Smith) density in corn (Zea mays L.) in Mayabeque Province, Cuba. Rev. Protección Veg. [Internet]. 2025 Jul. 9 [cited 2025 Jul. 12];40:https://cu-id.com/2247/v40e09. Available from: https://revistas.censa.edu.cu/index.php/RPV/article/view/1411
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ORIGINAL ARTICLES

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